The eve of any major championship is typically one of reflection, a time to contemplate the odds and the likely contenders. This time, the 117th U.S Open is, on paper at least, a bit harder to predict than usual.
The Erin Hills course – all 7,741-yards of it – is new to professional golf. So coming up with a winning score, never mind a winner, is perhaps a little more difficult than in past years.
Still, the extraordinary length and vastness of the Wisconsin lay-out – one journalist of my acquaintance was heard to say that he has visited smaller countries – suggests an advantage for the longer-hitters. Former Open champion and European Ryder Cup skipper Darren Clarke certainly thinks so.
“Looking at the course, it is obviously going to suit the so-called ‘bombers,’ those guys who hit it miles off the tee,” says the burly Northern Irishman. “That’s the first prerequisite.
“The second is the ability to hit high, soft-landing approaches into the greens. That will bring with it a massive advantage. And yes, all of the above sounds a lot like Rory McIlroy. If I was going to choose a course to suit his game it would be this one. It is perfect for him.
“But not only him. The World No.1, Dustin Johnson, will fancy his chances. And so will Jason Day. No one hits long irons higher than he does.”
So are we destined to observe a one-dimensional slug-fest, one fought out only by those able to create the most impressive ‘hang-times?’ Not necessarily, according to Clarke.
“Yes, the shorter hitters are going to be challenged a lot more than those who can blast away off the tee,” he continues. “This course is over 7,700-yards long. So it is a big ask for any medium to short hitter. And all the rain only adds to their difficulties. Shorter hitters won’t be able to utilise the slopes on the fairways at maybe 280-290 yards and get a bit more run out of their drives. That only adds to the advantage enjoyed by the bombers.
“Having said that, using those slopes to add yardage to the tee-shots is going to leave quite a few ‘blind’ approach shots. The longer hitters may be going in with more lofted irons, but the shorter guys are often going to see more of what they are aiming at. So the longer guys are going to have choices to make on many tees. There are 14 holes out there that have at least the possibility of a blind shot.
“Bottom line? I wouldn’t completely eliminate the possibility of a medium-length hitter winning. Because we haven’t had a professional event here before we don’t really know for sure what is going to happen. Perhaps the only thing we can be certain of is that it is going to be very challenging.”
Nothing new there, of course. The US Open prides itself on its supposed toughness.
As for the five-strong Australian contingent, it is perhaps asking too much of Nick Flanagan – one year removed from caddying in this event – and first-time US Open qualifier, Wade Ormsby, to seriously contend.
But the same cannot be said for the other three.
Two – Adam Scott and Day – are well acquainted with the special pressures that come with vying for and winning a major title. And Marc Leishman has been there more than once without finishing first. Lest we forget, the 33-year old Victorian was Scott’s playing partner on the last day of the 2013 Masters and, two years later, was one of the defeated duo when Zach Johnson won the Open Championship at St. Andrews in a four-hole play-off.
It would come as no surprise to see any or all of that trio featuring large at Erin Hills come Sunday afternoon. C’mon Aussie.
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