Replete with Sandbelt references, the Aussie chances and the ritual writing-off of Tiger, Rory and Robert Rock, our panel of experts tip their certainties, their roughies and their day-dream believers ahead of the 124th U.S Open at Pinehurst No.2.
John Huggan – Columnist-at-Large
BANKER: The fairways at Pinehurst look wide. And they are. But you better be hitting into those incredibly challenging greens from the right angle. So, great driving is a must. And in that aspect of the game the best combination of length and accuracy under major championship pressure belongs to Ludvig Aberg. His stereotypically cool Swedish temperament won’t hurt either. I rest my case.
SURPRISE PACKET: A look at his recent form almost disaqualifies him from this category. But Christiaan Bezuidenhout has everything you need to do well at Pinehurst. Great driver and, even if based only on last week at the Memorial, a wonderful putter. That combination gives him a chance. You heard it here first.
TELL HIM HE’S DREAMING: Patrick Cantlay is just the sort of tediously steady golfer who does well in what is euphemistically called a “traditional” U.S. Open. But this week is anything but. Watch for this eternally insular and dour American to bore his way to an anonymous T-40 finish.
Paul Prendergast - Golf Plus Media
BANKER: A seven-under final round in the LIV event in Houston couldn't be a better way to stoke the confidence and fire in the belly of Brooks Koepka, the two-time U.S. Open champion whose belly fire rarely needs stoking at these events. (Of course, I could say the same about Scottie Scheffler re: The Memorial Tournament and everything else he's played in this year). There are a handful of guys who, when their name is on the first page of the leaderboard come Thursday night, it's a cat-amongst-the-pigeons moment for the rest of the field. Koepka is in that handful. Should he get himself in the mix, he'll be a tough nut to crack.
SURPRISE PACKET: After a final round 79 at The Memorial last week, the bookies have Will Zalatoris at over 50-1 to win but the man on the injury comeback trail need only close his eyes and draw on the memory of Brookline 2022 to remember he has significant U.S Open pedigree. Missed a makeable chance on the final green to force a playoff with Matt Fitzpatrick two years ago, the same year he also lost a playoff for the PGA Championship. So he knows what this big stage is all about. Hasn't moved the needle much in the past month to be fair but, he hasn't fallen off the cliff either since his Top 10 finish at The Masters. Will be paired with Fitzpatrick and Tiger Woods over the first two rounds so the eyeballs will certainly be on him from the start.
TELL HIM HE’S DREAMING: While I can see Tiger Woods making the cut if all goes well with his body/game/draw/weather, etc, I just don't see anyone not facing the heat in elite competition for months at a time winning 'a' major championship, let alone 'this' one. Other dreamers worthy of an honourable mention include anyone coming to Pinehurst with anything other than their A+ chipping game, hoping to tame the famed turtle-back greens.
Mike Clayton – Mike Clayton
BANKER: How can you go past Scottie Scheffler, the dominant player who is so statistically far ahead of the rest of the tour from tee to green? From the fairway he’s leading the tour in bogey percentage - 5.1%. This year he's 153 under par which is 25 shots ahead of the next bloke. Plays well and he wins.
SURPRISE PACKET: Pinehurst No.2 is the closest thing to an Australian type course. Sandy ground. Wide fairways - compared with the usual US Open setup. And no long green grass around the seemingly hard and fast greens. Cam Davis could revel.
TELL HIM HE’S DREAMING: Ten years and no majors for someone so good. It’s unimaginable but was Valhalla in 2014 the end of it for Rory McIlroy? Hard to believe.
Karen Harding - Golf Australia magazine contributor and host of 'Tee For Two' podcast
BANKER: It needs to be said straight out that this ‘tipster’ is looking for someone other than Scottie Scheffler who is the obvious tip, only a stint in the slammer being possible to stop him. So, who else? Much as Rory McIlroy can be considered a chance in anything, the pressure of tipping him is high, so…no, not this time Rory, sorry. I’m going for Brooks Koepka. The man is a killer, he has four LIV wins - including Singapore two starts back before he tied-ninth in Houston last week - so he has recent form, and for those who want to point out that LIV form isn’t considered ‘real’ tournament form, let’s remember he does have his five majors, including successive U.S Open championships in 2017 and 2018. Okay, his form in majors this year hasn’t been great but he knows USGA setups, he knows how to win, and it seems his troublesome knee is good to go, so I reckon he has a solid chance.
SURPRISE PACKET: In his only two starts in the U.S Open, Min Woo Lee has finished T27 in 2022 and T5 last year. In fact, he has a decent record in majors – T14 in the 2022 Masters and T21 in the 2022 Open Championshipo, as well as T18 in the 2023 PGA. He also won the 2016 U.S Junior Amateur, so he can handle USGA course setups and he loves the big stage. He is built for a big win and a practice round with no less than Tiger Woods this week can only help, you’d think. After a T2 at the Cognizant Classic in March, Lee has been steady but not spectacular. But when he's ‘cooking’, The Chef can beat anyone.
TELL HIM HE’S DREAMING: It actually hurts to say this but ... even Adam Scott must surely give himself little chance in this 124th U.S Open. His best result will be making the field at the last minute, preserving his remarkable record of teeing up at majors. The 2024 U.S Open will be his 92nd consecutive appearance but it has to be remembered that he didn’t qualify off his own bat but through exemption after the tragic absence of one who did. Romantics might feel that Scott could pull off something miraculous and it would be outstanding if he did ... but it’s very unlikely. It’s also unlikely he will miss the cut or finish dead last either. But win? No.
Callum Hill – Golf Australia Writer
BANKER: I am desperate to get off the mark here, so I will no doubt be joining some of my peers and tip the $3 favourite. Scottie Scheffler is so much better than everyone else, it makes me sick. He has won at Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass, Augusta National, Hilton Head and Muirfield Village … THIS YEAR. That would be a fantastic résumé of wins at the end of a career, not the Texan. He has ticked them off in his last 8 starts. Catch him if you can, boys.
SURPRISE PACKET: Sungjae Im - he just passes the eye test, and I have tipped him elsewhere, so I better stick to my guns. Wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if he is in the mix at the business end of the tournament.
TELL HIM HE'S DREAMING: Rory McIlroy cannot string it together at the majors. Get close? Yes. Win? Not in a decade! But God, I hope I am wrong, as I usually am when these things roll around.
Jimmy Emanuel – Contributor-at-Large
BANKER: Not going too far out on a limb with this one, but picking SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER as my banker feels like the purpose of the exercise. He has been utterly brilliant all year, plays a venue that suits perfectly, and after everything that happened at the PGA, he’s owed some good karma.
SURPRISE PACKET: As I did on Playing From The Tips this week, I am sticking solid with THOMAS DETRY in this category. Quality swinger and striker, Detry has looked so close to winning on a big Tour many times, and just strikes me as the kind to breakthrough at a major.
TELL HIM HE’S DREAMING: To offer a bit of value in tipping in a category that only serves to make us look foolish, or potentially puts us on a player's Bad List, I’m offering two-for-one here. When it comes to the brothers Francesco and Edoardo Molinari you can tell THEM they’re dreaming. Let it be known I am massive fan of both men ... just don’t think it is their week.
Rod Morri – Podcast Mogul
BANKER: Simple common sense says Scottie Scheffler so on that basis we’ll immediately rule him out. Of the 155 players left there are a handful who could claim this mythical ‘Banker’ status and for mine Matt Fitzpatrick is among them. He’s well down the ‘Approach the Green’, ‘Greens in Regulation’ and pretty much all other statistical categories on the PGA Tour this year which makes him all but a lock to win a second US Open trophy #IMHO.
SURPRISE PACKET: This will be a week for the best strikers and given the nature of the greens almost everyone will struggle to make putts. With that in mind, Canada’s Corey Conners has all the tools required and may just two-putt (or, perhaps more accurately, not three-putt) his way to a first major.
TELL HIM HE’S DREAMING: At the 2015 Open at St Andrews, a cheeky reporter suggested on Twitter that Marcus Fraser ‘couldn’t win’ to which the laid back Victorian replied, "I’m here with a set of golf clubs so I’ve got a better chance than you". The same is true for all in the field this week and every player good enough to qualify rightly harbours the dream of holding the trophy at the end of the week. I’m not prepared to rain on that parade because each and every one has, indeed, earned that right. Having said that, I would be VERY surprised if the 477th-ranked amateur in the world, Gunnar Broin, were to be on the podium Sunday evening.
Matt Cleary – Golf Australia Senior Writer
BANKER: It took Louisville PD putting Scottie Scheffler in jail and an orange jumpsuit to stop the Gomer Pyle-looking golf savant from winning the PGA Championship at Valhalla. And even then he came straight from his cell and shot 66. It's like he has no brain, or at least one that doesn't think of anything other than hitting the next great golf shot. Somebody stop him before he wins again.
SURPRISE PACKET: If Gomer's the 3-1 favourite, it means just about everyone else would be a surprise. That includes our Cameron Smith, albeit a slight one. Pinehurst No.2 will be hard and fast around the turtle-back greens, and everyone, including old brainless Gomer, will miss them. Get up-and-down more than the next-best guy, you'll win the U.S Open. Martin Kaymer won in 2014 by putting from downtown off the green. Smith remains the world's best putter. No.2 is like the Sandbelt. Tick, tick, boom.
TELL HIM HE'S DREAMING: As someone who warned Xander Schauffele he was dreaming ahead of the PGA Championship (sorry, Huggy, United States PGA Championship) at Valhalla, I'm loathe to assert that any of these super-elite golf beings has no chance. But Robert Rock won't win the U.S Open because the only thing he's ever done is not wear a hat.
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